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Understanding how tropical corals respond to temperatures is important to evaluating their capacity to persist in a warmer future. We studied the common Pacific coral Pocillopora over 44° of latitude, and used populations at three islands with different thermal regimes to compare their responses to temperature using thermal performance curves (TPCs) for respiration and gross photosynthesis. Corals were sampled in the local autumn from Moorea, Guam, and Okinawa where mean (± s.d.) annual seawater temperature is 28.0±0.9°C, 28.9±0.7°C, and 25.1±3.4°C, respectively. TPCs for respiration were similar among latitudes, the thermal optimum (Topt) was above the local maximum temperature at all three islands, and maximum respiration was lowest at Okinawa. TPCs for gross photosynthesis were wider, implying greater thermal eurytopy, with a higher Topt in Moorea versus Guam and Okinawa. Topt was above the maximum temperature in Moorea, but was similar to daily temperatures over 13% of the year in Okinawa, and 53% of the year in Guam. There was greater annual variation in daily temperatures in Okinawa than Guam or Moorea, which translated to large variation in the supply of metabolic energy and photosynthetically fixed carbon at higher latitudes. Despite these trends, the differences in TPCs for Pocillopora were not profoundly different across latitudes, reducing the likelihood that populations of these corals could better match their phenotypes to future more extreme temperatures through migration. Any such response would place a premium on high metabolic plasticity and tolerance of large seasonal variations in energy budgets. 

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.